Rain. We needed. Badly. But… at this moment in time all the wet stuff- coupled with the coronavirus- is a lot to take in. All events: musical; social; fundraising; and academic have been cancelled. Over age 65- we have been asked to self isolate. Restaurants can stay open, but patrons are to engage in “deep social distancing”. Most stores-with no buyers-closed up shop. Schools are shuttered, though plans are developing to arrange for food for needy students. How this will unfold is a WIP. Patience matters, and I encourage you to be kind. Reaction to this pandemic seems extreme, but…looking at the statistics coming out of China, and the fatalities in Italy. I think wise. Better to overreact, than not. This fatality chart gave me the willies. NOTE: The chart maybe a bit boring, so jump to age/death rates-figures. That’s where the excitement lies…. and why shutting down society as we know it-the right thing to do.
Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths. Last updated: February 29, 4:40 GMT. There are two sources that provide age, sex, and comorbidity statistics:
The Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission published on Feb. 28 by WHO, [2] which is based on 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases. The report notes that “The Joint Mission acknowledges the known challenges and biases of reporting crude CFR early in an epidemic” (see also our discussion on: How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak)
A paper by the Chinese CCDC released on Feb. 17, which is based on 72,314 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 in China as of Feb. 11, and was published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology [1]
We will list data from both, labeling them as “confirmed cases” and “all cases” respectively in the tables.
Age of Coronavirus Deaths
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.
AGE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
21.9%
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group.
In general, relatively few cases are seen among children.
I said this chart gave me the willies, but… not because I am in the 8% mortality group. For other reasons. For friends and family. For my nephew who just lost his job yesterday. He was a restaurant cook in a large business. The business closed its doors to prevent the spread of the virus and fired him. The companies staff can work remotely, but not William. True, he will be able to collect unemployment-but only half the dollars of his take home pay. And he is the tip of the human iceberg. Homeless folks caught in this cold rain-I saw 36 degrees tonight on weather chart-will be at high risk. My thoughts leap to at risk populations: immigrant children in crowded detention centers; our packed prison population, to students who receive meals-maybe their only dependable meal-in schools now shuttering doors. I realize there is so much to take in. And how not to feel discouraged?
I am by nature an optimist. I see the glass half full. And also know… that glass is half empty. I like some of the changes I’ve seen in just the past 24 hours. Time is no longer a precious commodity. Rush. Rush, rush. Nope. The clock hands have slowed. And with slower time comes the realization that thinking is important-to decide what really matters. And I see friends reaching out. A man I have not see since we graduated from college- 53 years ago-sent a lovely video of his amazing grandchildren this morning. Other friends have called to just “check in”. We all have a pile of books to read. I recommend: The Lost Children Archive by Valeria Luiselli; Thomas Jefferson, The Art of Power by John Mecham; The Cult of Trump by Steven Hassan; and Wounded Shepard (Pope Francis) by Austen Ivereigh. Plus lots of trashy romances and light stuff to balance out that first serious reading pile of books….
I hope this crisis moves the discussion of universal health care forward. I hope it encourages us as a nation to look at income inequality. To see we need each other, and to care for one another. By the time the crisis ends I hope we will have made the choice to elect a new President, and new leadership in Congress. Someone/s-the additional “s” is deliberate- inspirational. Someone who can lead us to a safe harbor in a big fat storm.